Bill Gates Feels Generative AI Has Plateaued, Says GPT-5 Will Not Be Any Better

Generative AI has been making waves in the tech world, with substantial investments pouring into this cutting-edge technology. The release of OpenAI's ChatGPT in November 2022 marked a pivotal moment in the evolution of artificial intelligence. OpenAI's GPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) series has ignited a revolution across various industries. Yet, despite the excitement surrounding GPT technology, billionaire Bill Gates believes that it might have hit a plateau.

In a recent interview with the German business newspaper Handelsblatt, the 67-year-old tech luminary shared his perspective on the state of AI, climate change, and the future of AI technology. Gates stated that there are compelling reasons to believe that GPT technology has reached a certain limit, though he acknowledged that he could be mistaken. He expressed a view contrary to that held by many at OpenAI, suggesting that current generative AI may have reached its peak. He labeled the transition from GPT-2 to GPT-4 as "incredible."

During the interview, Gates also made a prediction that over the next two to five years, AI software accuracy would significantly improve while costs would decrease. This, he believes, will pave the way for the creation of new, reliable applications. Interestingly, he foresees a temporary slowdown in AI development. The billionaire suggested that with GPT-4, the current capabilities have reached a maximum, and he doesn't anticipate GPT-5 to surpass its predecessor.

However, Gates also emphasized the short-term potential of AI. He envisages that ongoing research will make AI more dependable and comprehensible. He also noted that developing nations stand to gain immensely from AI, highlighting the potential of health advice via smartphones.

Addressing the cost and reliability of AI, Gates recognized that some AI chips, such as those from Nvidia, can cost around $30,000 each, consuming significant computing power and energy. He mentioned that while training large language models can be expensive, the actual usage costs have significantly reduced, making AI more accessible.

Gates went on to discuss AI's potential in healthcare, emphasizing its ability to accelerate drug and vaccine development. Despite the current challenges with AI reliability, he envisions AI playing a pivotal role in these fields.

The philanthropist also delved into the concept of AI as a "black box," highlighting the importance of understanding how AI encrypts information. He noted that efforts are underway to demystify this aspect of AI. Regarding Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), Gates stressed that its arrival remains uncertain, but it could be a profound development for humanity.

On the topic of AI's role in mitigating climate change, Gates noted that climate models are improving, and new crop varieties are being developed to cope with rising temperatures. He also mentioned his investments in nearly 100 companies working on AI-powered improvements to the power grid.